I am not sure about the national party status. They got 32.9% votes in Delhi, 24.4% votes in Punjab and 24% votes in Chandigarh. The election commission rules state that a party gets national party status if they fulfill any one of the following conditions:
1) The party wins 2% of seats in the Lok Sabha (11 seats) from at least 3 different States.
2) At a General Election to Lok Sabha or Legislative Assembly, the party polls 6% of votes in four States and in addition it wins 4 Lok Sabha seats.
3) A party gets recognition as State Party in four or more States.
They do not qualify criteria 1 as they got only 4 seats that too from one state. The second criteria is what they were perhaps near. They got 4 seats and also got more than 24% votes (not only 6%) in three of the states (Chandigarh is a UT and I am not sure if it also falls in the criteria of EC). But their main problem is the fourth state. They were expected to do well in Haryana and UP especially but they were far bellow the 6% there with only 4.2% voteshare in Haryana and 1% in UP. They in fact did better than expected in states like Goa with 3.3% voteshare and Mizoram with 2.7% voteshare. In many states, AAP got some voteshare especially for a brand new party and was the third largest party after BJP and Congress especially in bi-party states.
So, they have not yet got the national party status I suppose. In fact, I doubt three national parties might lose the status soon i.e. BSP, NCP and CPI if they perform badly in the coming state elections too in the future. CPI(M) might survive for sometime as they are a major party in at least three states, viz., Kerala, WB and Tripura. NCP's voteshare is even lower than AAP but has won more seats than AAP (1 in Bihar too). Mayawati might still make a comeback if she can regain the Dalit vote across India but in the long run, NCP and CPI might become regional parties instead of national. At best, there would be only BSP and CPM in addition to BJP and Congress as the only recognized national parties.
At the current pace, AAP would probably become a national party soon by going through the criteria no.3 i.e. state party in 3 states. For that, they need to focus on Haryana as assembly elections are near and also grow their base in Punjab. They also need to focus in UP as it seems people there are frustated with the caste politics of reginal parties SP and BSP. So, AAP can enter the vacuum if they work hard and if BJP makes any mistake. They are getting some base even in unfamiliar territories.. they are the third largest party even in Andaman and Nicobar :tongue: in addition to many Indian states. Even in South, they are getting some base for a brand new party. So, they need to build up from that base soon and they should achieve national party status soon.
NB: BTW just checked the state party criteria and here are the criterias:
A political party shall be treated as a recognised political party in a State, if and only if the political party fulfills any of the following conditions:
1) At General Elections or Legislative Assembly elections, the party has won 3% of seats in the legislative assembly of the State ( subject to a minimum of 3 seats).
2) At a Lok Sabha General Elections, the party has won 1 Lok sabha seat for every 25 Lok Sabha seat allotted for the State.
3) At a General Election to Lok Sabha or Legislative Assembly, the party has polled minimum of 6% of votes in a State and in addition it has won 1 Lok Sabha or 2 Legislative Assembly seats.
4) At a General Election to Lok Sabha or Legislative Assembly, the party has polled 8% of votes in a State.
AAP has achived most of criterias in the above list in Punjab. So, it is probably a state party in Punjab now. In Chandigarh, it has fulfilled criteria 4. Puducherry is also listed in the state party list here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_political_parties_in_India
So, probably Chandigarh is als counted. So, AAP would need just one more state for fulfilling the national party criteria.
chromaniac said:
https://twitter.com/DelhiConnect/status/467273340667707392/
So has AAP got the vote share to become a national party?
I am not sure if people have noticed something about the results or not. The wave is only a Modi wave and not a BJP wave. In many of the states, the results of state assembly elections or assembly bypolls were given. And BJP was not doing well in most states.
http://eciresults.nic.in/AC/PartyWiseResult.htm
Except Seemandhra where it made an alliance with TDP where the alliance got the majority (though it was TDP mainly who got the seats and votes), it lost all the other three states. For example, in Arunachal BJP won one LS seat and Congress one. But in the assembly elections held simultaneously, BJP only won 11 of the 60 assembly seats. Even if I take example of the bypolls, BJP won only 4 of the 7 seats in Gujarat with Congress getting the other 3 there. So, perhaps it is more of Modi who scored these victories for BJP rather than the other way round. Similarly, Bihar assembly bypolls got only 1 out of 5 seats for Bihar though NDA got 31 of the 40 seats in LS results. Overall, the pattern of state results in most states was not consistent with the national pattern. So, I would not predict AAP to do bad as of now if they work well in the state elections in the coming months and years. There are elections in Haryana and Maharastra later this year in addition to Delhi. They have some base at least in the two other states and so, it is good opportunity for focusing and expanding. Lets see how they work on these state elections. If they spread in rural Haryana and get a mass leader like they got Bhagwant Mann in Punjab, then they can pull up some good voteshare and seats in the state assembly. Lets wait and see how they go from here. Although I voted for BJP/Modi but I am still more of an AAP supporter, I try to remain unbiased and not bring in religion but one reason why I still cannot support BJP wholeheartedly is because they do not provide representation to minorities and lower castes. For example, I went through the entire BJP MP list today and there are not a single Muslim MP. Hope my vote does not go to waste and Modi keeps up to his promises but in a country with nearly 20% minorities, it is quite saddening not to see a single MP from the minority in a party who has won 52% of the seats. Even in the whole of NDA with 335 MPs, there is only a single Muslim MP that too in LJP. Democrary is representation of the people and if a large section of people remains unrepresented in the govt. it definitely does not give wholehearted apprecitaion for that party. BJP seriously needs to work on that aspect in the coming years as AAP at least tries to give representation based on demographic proportions.