Bearish? You Bet. You Will Be Too -- Once You See What We See | Elliott Wave International
Bearish? You Bet.
See What We See & You Will Be Too
Saturday, May 5, 2012
Dear reader,
A week after the Dow's all-time high in October 2007, Robert Prechter went on Bloomberg to describe "extremes that exceed 1929 or 1987...these are the harbingers of a change to the downside for the stock market."
A week before the major low in March 2009, he went on CNBC to say "it's getting crowded on the bear side...we've been in a short position for a long time, I recommended that people get out of it." S&P futures traders were a record 98% bears (only 2% bulls) on the very day of the low Prechter went on
TV to call for a major turn to the upside. In other words, people were telling you to sell at the worst possible time.
History shows that at market extremes many of the most opinioned bears and bulls surrender to popular opinion. The market then moves violently against popular opinion.
We have a track record of standing our ground while those around us are surrendering their opinion.
And we're doing it again.
Generally speaking, economists and money managers are typically one-note bulls. They always give you a rosy forecast. But look how much you lost in your real estate investments, and how much you are still losing, thanks to them. Look how much you have lost in your stocks since 1999, too. But did they ever tell you to sell? No, never. And they still won't say it. On the contrary, now that the stock market has more than doubled, they're telling you that it's safe to load the
boat. That's what they said in 1999 and 2006, throwing you under the bus both times.
Today everyone who was bearish on stocks in March 2009 is back to being bullish. Consider these recent headlines:
Global Strategists Abandoning Bearish Views – Bloomberg
Stop the Presses, Dr. Doom is Turning Bullish – Bloomberg
BlackRock...Says Investors Should Be 100% Equities – Bloomberg
Iran Anxiety No Match for Central Bankers Sedating Investors With Cheap Cash – Bloomberg
...Nasdaq Bull Market Leaves Bearish Outlook Behind – Bloomberg
...Low Volume Means Bull Run May Last – Bloomberg
Warren Buffet: Why Stocks Beat Gold and Bonds – Bloomberg
Enter the Bull – Barron’s
You Have To Be In It To Win It – MarketWatch
Who's left? We are.
That's right. The financial media say bears are extinct or in hiding. But not here at Elliott Wave International! We are back on our mountain peak, standing tall and roaring. We are not shy about it. We are not apologetic. We are not tentative.
We have 300 years of market history and 50 years of market indicators on our side. Everything else is a waste of time. And we can tell you: The stock market today is overleveraged, over-owned and overvalued. That is why, at this time, we are unequivocal bears.
We don't care if the market grinds a bit higher this year. It is just lulling the optimists further into complacency, so they can siren-call their followers to self-destruction, again. But right now we recommend a whole different stance. Yes, we expect to identify another good market bottom when it arrives, but now is not it.
Wake up!
1.) We did not have a "Great Recession" that is over; we are in a depression
2.) We did not just start a multi-decade bull market; we are near the end of a bear market rally
3.) We are not in the comforting arms of endless "liquidity" from a generous Fed; we are on the precipice of a looming worldwide credit crisis.
Do you think this language is too strong? We think it's conservative. We save what we really think for our subscribers.
If you can't handle this kind of talk, exit now. We'll be happy to have you join us later, when the S&P is having 40-point down days.
But if you are that rare individual who is ahead of the crowd, who thinks there is something wrong with the Pollyanna picture, then you have found your home: Elliott Wave International, which, for now at least, is the home of the bears.
Someday we will again be the home of the bulls. And we'll be just as lonely as we are today. But not until our work says it's time.
Until then: Are you safe? Are you confident? Did you know that you can make money much faster in a bear market than a bull market? Do you know what to do? If not, join us and find out, while the opportunity is still here.
