till today have you ever heard that a person buying pirated CD's was arrested? the reason is very simple, they have to cut the chain & not the final element which is you. if they arrest you, they gain nothing.
example, some of my idiotic friends who use pirated
windows & download updates &
microsoft realizes that they are using pirated windows. on 4 corners of the screen, that imprint is put that you are using pirated version of windows. microsoft, if they want can easily track my friends but they are not interested in catching individual users. they have to break the chain.
in short what i'm trying to say is that if you buy/use/hire/download pirated stuffs, no one will catch you BUT ALWAYS remember that you are using something that is stolen & causes loss to someone

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yes i have seen one of my known person(Bangalore), who have paid a few thousand rupees for using MS-XP,OFF,VS etc.
but u could consider him in ur category "idiotic friends who use pirated windows & download updates & microsoft".
there is even better option for these kind of people, that is use a seperate OS on a seperate partition for using Net (withuot OFF,VS etc).
chances gets reduced..........