This topic is quite complicated because every single company decided their own fates.
Apple: They are doing great. They are expected to do great for a few years to come. Remains to be seen if they decide to go offensive against
Android by taking an aggressive approach with support for new technologies and future.
Google: Android is doing great. It is expected to do great. Google is not slowing down with the development process. Though they have messed up badly with Android@Home project. Android should have been powering more than just phones and
tablets today. It should have been powering consumer electronics. It should have been deeply integrated with car entertainment systems. This is where Apple is gaining on Android.
Nokia: They messed up badly. They did not consider Apple
iPhone a big enough threat. They took a long time on coming out with MeeGo. And when MeeGo was ready, they ditched it for
Windows Phone. But they are still doing a good job with their hardware and software offerings. A lot would depend upon how they are able to cope up with the competition from Android in the future.
Blackberry: They did not mess up that badly. They just made a mistake of not innovating fast enough. And now they are trying to target both corporate and consumer markets which I think might be a mistake. The focus should have remained on the corporate sector. By which I mean they should have launched Q10 and R10 first. Z10 could have waited. They are expected to struggle for a long time. They might be able to survive but there is very little chance of them gaining back the market share they once had simply because they are a single company responsible for both hardware and software. Even Nokia gave up on that approach.
HTC: They were once the leading manufacturer of
smartphones (Windows Mobile) in the market. They had a golden opportunity to be the leading Android maker in the market when they got the first phone (G1) and first Nexus (Nexus One). They have also messed up in the recent past by not focusing on a single (or two) flagship phones in a year. They also messed up badly by not releasing Android updates faster.
Samsung is today what HTC could have been if they had been smarter with their approach.
Samsung: They are the biggest gainer. From a little known mobile manufacturer to world’s largest mobile phone company today. They gained from their expertise in component manufacturing. They are in a solid position today because they are the leading Android smartphone maker in the market. They are also one of the biggest smartphone/tablet component supplier in the market. It would take a lot of mistakes on their part to stumble now.
Motorola: Another company which had a solid shot at the top. They were once the leading mobile phone company in the US market. They had a decent presence in India too. But they fucked up in both the markets (and more). Google saved their asses from becoming a patent troll. They are likely to remain as a niche player in the near future because I do not see Google focusing on feature phones in the future.