@evilpoodle, You will need to do some systematic testing. Look at your SNR margin values at different times of the day. Try and relate them to any appliance switching ON/OFF. (
ADSL is known to be sensitive to
Microwave Ovens, and certain malfunction electrical part of household equipments).
I would suggest going to your main box (where the MTNL line comes into your building), and directly hooking up your
router there to see SNR margins. Your data rate fluctuation is normal for a low-SNR line.
Switching to 4 Mbps will definitely restore your SNR margins (which is essential for a stable connection). On your current plan, you could ask MTNL to decrease your profile to 6 Mbps down/2 Mbps up. Before this - you need to ensure that your MTNL wire hasn't physically been moved (case of bad connector/connection).